Sheikh Hasina’s recent resignation as Prime Minister of Bangladesh has significant implications for India. Sheikh Hasina has been India’s strongest ally in the region. Their collaboration spanned various domains, including economics, counter-terrorism, and connectivity projects. India trusted her, and her Awami League was considered pro-India.
India and Bangladesh have jointly worked on ambitious rail, road, and energy projects to enhance connectivity between their economies. They also resolved contentious issues related to territory and water-sharing.
Throughout her political troubles in 2024, India supported her. It even urged the US to ease pressure on her government regarding democracy and human rights concerns. India’s backing of Sheikh Hasina was evident despite her growing authoritarianism.
With her departure, an interim government led by the Bangladesh Army is forming. The nature of this government remains unclear, and its impact on Bangladesh’s political direction will affect India-Bangladesh ties.
Transit and trans-shipment arrangements with Bangladesh may be revised by the incoming regime. India relies on these for better logistics supply to its Northeast. Ensuring continuity in transit arrangements is crucial.
Jamaat-e-Islami, which reportedly participated in protests against Sheikh Hasina, may have influence over the interim government. India’s uneasy equation with Jamaat complicates matters. Pakistan’s influence could also rise.
If the BNP comes to power, India faces challenges. The BNP has been uncooperative on security matters and has closer ties with Pakistan and China. It has also allied with Islamist groups, which India opposes.
A BNP-led government could halt India’s ambitious economic projects. Moreover, it might lean toward China due to historical distrust of India. India’s strong support for Sheikh Hasina has earned it some anger among Bangladesh’s opposition. Managing this delicate balance will be crucial.
With the Army in control, India must monitor the situation closely. Student groups, who led the protests, have rejected military rule, potentially leading to instability.
In summary, India faces uncertainties and strategic challenges following Sheikh Hasina’s fall. Navigating this complex landscape will require diplomatic finesse and adaptability.
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